Aug 14

15 ส.ค.

Overview:
The market is currently at a stalemate, which isn’t surprising after last week’s 15% crash. Since 2009, BTC has only experienced a drop of more than 15% around 10 to 15 times. We’re receiving contradictory macroeconomic news: on one hand, predictions of a long-awaited recession in the U.S. are surfacing, with major corporations reporting diminishing returns and U.S. consumers already feeling the pinch, as grocery prices have jumped by 50-70%. On the other hand, Lord Jerome reports the year-over-year CPI at 2.9%, lower than the expected 3.0%.
BTC ETF flows reported $81 million in selling, indicating that ETF investors aren't interested in BTC at 58.5k. However, just two days earlier, there was a positive flow totaling $66 million.
Demand for SUI via Grayscale has stalled, with a 20% decline from recent highs in the last two days, although it's still up 44% since the August 8th news. TTAO, on the other hand, has only seen about one-sixth of that demand, rising just 7% to date. Is this the cost of not being listed on Coinbase?

Alts Relative to BTC:
No divergence observed. ETH, SOL, and NEAR mirrored BTC’s correction of 5.22%, each declining by 6-7%.

Bull Case:
The S&P 500 continues to climb, nearing previous levels (only 3.81% away from its all-time high after a 9.44% drop). Jobless claims numbers came in lower than expected, signaling improving economic conditions and possibly taking a recession off the table. Global liquidity has stabilized over the last three days.

Bear Case:
None of the above factors support risky asset prices, and BTC loses its ETF demand support, potentially plummeting to 41.2-43.8k.

Fear and Greed Index:
42.9, decreasing and edging toward Fear territory—where long red candles and even longer wicks reside.

W:
Mid-range, in accumulation territory, curving downward. While last week’s crash candle ended green, this week has shown a lower high and may close below the opening, potentially turning red. Only 3.54% separates us from the weekly support level, which could be tested in the next four days. No divergence.

D:
On August 14th, BTC touched the BB MA and bounced down, closing in red and re-entering the previously established 60.2k - 58.2k daily range. However, on the 15th, it already broke out of that range and may close outside of it. If the 15th closes in red, this week could be in trouble, opening the door to a drop toward 56k.

4h:
After rejecting 61.7k, BTC crashed through the BB MA. This -5.5% correction was accompanied by a significant MACD divergence. To continue the existing trend, a bounce back up with bullish demand was needed, but no buyers stepped in, and the next 12 hours saw continued decline, currently trading slightly below the 58.2k daily level.

1h:
A red candle at 2am on August 15th showed a dangerous increase in volume compared to the previous two red candles. With U.S. bulls sleeping, there may be no support at this level, risking a free fall.

Prediction:
With the lack of support from Asian bulls, we are likely to fall below 58k, and only unexpectedly positive news from Jerome Powell might keep BTC within the daily range, above 58k.

Opportunities:
SOL: Dropped below the weekly support level of $146.3 and seems to be declining, solidifying it as a new resistance. Opportunity to short to $130 (7.94%).
NEAR: Retreated from the weekly level of $4.39 and is on its way to $3.3 (19%).
SUI: Rejected the weekly level of $1, with the next stop at $0.8 (-10%), which coincides with the BTC ETF demand level.
APT: Rejected the weekly level.
AR: Holding on by a thread above a 58% abyss to the BTC ETF level, with no intermediate stops.
ENS: Expected to mirror ETH's performance, potentially doubling whatever ETH does.

Mistakes:
Yesterday’s 4h BTC divergence became apparent at noon (UTC-4, NY time) after a red candle appeared. As of now, at least 2.40% could have been captured.

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