BTC possible ABC correction to 38k?

If we doesnt reclaim monthly resistence 58822 there is a chance we visit 38k level. Why?

I have several confluences for this number: weekly level, GAP, ABC 1.272 target of Fib. Extension, 0.382 Fib. Retracement of whole wave 3 (this healthy retracement means wave 4 for me, then wave 5 to 100k+)

Now I am waiting for breaking the lower triangle trendline + retest, then I will open short position.

Good luck traders :)