I am continue to be bearish with this pair, mainly for a few reasons:
1) The weekly candle ended bearishly
2) Price is forming lower high and low on the daily TF
3) Price is forming a rounding top (a pattern for trend reversal)
4) In the 4 hour TF, for every few bull candles, there will be a big bear candle
5) Price ended below intraday control
6) COT data is bear-bias for AUD
Price is now at a pretty supportive region due to the Cluster of ICs (COCs) and on the 4 hour, price formed a nice bullish pin bar with a nice volume. Therefore I am expecting price to be pushed up a bit but the bearishness should continue to push price down.
If price can break past the trench, it should be no problem going to 0.776 and then 0.768.