AUDUSD rebound remains elusive below 0.6500

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AUDUSD portrays a corrective bounce from the lowest level in a month, snapping a three-day downtrend, amid mixed data/events from Australia. Also allowing the Aussie pair to consolidate recent losses is the market’s reaction to the upbeat data from China, Australia’s biggest customer, as well as the below 50 levels of the RSI line. However, the bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beneath the 0.6500 support confluence, comprising an ascending trend line from early November and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s late 2023 moves, challenge the bullish bias. Even if the quote manages to cross the 0.6500 support-turned-resistance, a convergence of the 50-SMA and the 200-SMA near 0.6545-50 will be a tough nut to crack for the buyers. Following that, the 0.6600 threshold and a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since January, near 0.6635-40, will be the last defenses of the pair sellers before giving control to the bulls.

On the contrary, a two-month-old horizontal support around 0.6475 restricts the immediate downside of the AUDUSD pair ahead of the yearly low marked in February around 0.6445. In a case where the Aussie pair remains bearish past 0.6445, the early November swing lows surrounding 0.6340 and 0.6320 could test the sellers before directing them to the previous yearly low of 0.6270. It’s worth noting that the quote’s weakness past 0.6270 will make it vulnerable to slump toward the year 2022 bottom around 0.6170.

Overall, the AUDUSD pair is likely to remain bearish and the latest recovery appears less convincing.