Kiwi retracing after long bearish move.

3 ก.พ. 2014

The AUD vs NZD has been on a short term bullish run prompted by comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler stating that the terms-of-trade is at a 40-year high, business confidence is the strongest since 1993 and consumer confidence is at a seven-year peak.
All this after the Kiwi has been mainly bearish since its high at 1.15794 which started on 1/24/14 and continued downwards to 1.04908 on 1/24/14. I think short term the bullish run could continue after the pullback to the support zone between 1.0751 and 1.07388 which would eliminate the short term profit taking. More than likely the Kiwi is in a retracement rather than a trend change. You see where the trend line has been compromised starting the previous bullish move. Price is now in a short retracement off of the bullish move but look for the support zone to hold strength and price should bounce off of this level and continue upwards to the resistance zone between 1.08999 and 1.09174. This resistance zone is also the 38.2 retracement level of the bearish run and also the previous month high level so we have some confluence of resistance at this level. We’ll know we are wrong if price violates the support zone then price would probably continue its bearish run. Have a great day of trading and God bless!