This is a continuation of my previous post on Holt's Linear Trend Forecasting.
The forecasts generated by Holt’s linear method display a constant trend (increasing or decreasing) indefinitely into the future. Empirical evidence indicates that these methods tend to over-forecast, especially for longer forecast horizons. Motivated by this observation, Gardner &...
Nothing fancy in terms of code, take this post as an educational post where i provide information rather than an useful tool.
Time-Series Forecasting And The Drift Method
In time-series analysis one can use many many forecasting methods, some share similarities but they can all by classified in groups and sub-groups, the drift method is a...
Holt's Forecasting method
Holt (1957) extended simple exponential smoothing to allow the forecasting of data with a trend. This method involves a forecast equation and two smoothing equations (one for the level and one for the trend):
Forecast equation: ŷ = l + h * b
Level equation: l = alpha * y + (1 - alpha) * (l + b)
Trend equation: b = beta * (l - l) +...
Forecasting is a blurry science that deal with lot of uncertainty. Most of the time forecasting is made with the assumption that past values can be used to forecast a time series, the accuracy of the forecast depend on the type of time series, the pre-processing applied to it, the forecast model and the parameters of the model.
In tradingview we...
Based on my latest script "Linear Channels"
This is a trailing stop version of the linear channels. Thanks to capissimo for helping me fix several issues with the linear extrapolation part.
In order to know how the indicator work i recommend reading the post on the Linear Channels indicator here
I already made an indicator (simple line) that tried to make lines on price such that the results would not repaint and give a good fit to the price, today i publish a channels indicator based on the simple line indicator. The indicator aim to show possible support and resistance levels when the central line posses a low sum of squares with the...
Version 2 - Linear Regression Slope. This version will have more freedom on picking your own length for all the Inputs.
One of the main reason I changed it is because, Slope calculation on transition period was not being computed properly. Because the Version 1, looks back the length assigned, and compute the slope based on two candle readings, could be 10 days...
This is version 1 of the Linear Regression Slope. In ideal world the Linear regression slope values will remain same for any time period length. because the equation is y = mx+b, where m is the slope. All I did here is m = y/x
The Main Purpose of this indicator is to see, if the Trend is accelerating or decelerating.
The first Blue bar will caution when a...
Linear Trend Follower follows 'source' trend using lines within a number of periods ('length') using the last n periods source variation divided by 'length' as line slope. It is delayed by 'length' periods.
In the era of central bank's helicopter money, the market will always be skyrocketing up and up given enough time.
What's the strategy to profit from indices?
Only short the market when its in a state of euphoria /irrational exuberance bubble, or sell when it is confirmed (20% drawdown). Otherwise, you really have no reason not to long at every chance....
Tensor Cloud is a leading indicator based on linear extrapolation. Much like Ichimoku, it forms two clouds by opposing span lines (In this case Future Span A and Future Span B). It is accompanied by both Tip and Safe lines. Original post is here:
I've received great general feedback on this but not much...
draws a line from 2 vectors(price, time)
reformatted the function,
added automatic detection of the period multiplier by approximation(gets a bit goofy with stocks/week time),
example using timestamp() function.
offsetting is still bugged, i cant find a way around it atm.