Introducing the Reverse BTC Pi Market Cycle Top indicator
Much respect to Philip Swift the original creator of this idea and big thanks to Tradingview author Ninorigo for sharing the script which this indicator is based on.
Philip Swift has noted that: Using the x2 multiple of the 350 day moving average along with the 111 day moving average provides an interesting market cycle indicator. Over the past three market cycles, when the 350DMA x2 crosses below the 111DMA, Bitcoin price peaks in its market cycle, this has been accurate to within three days of Bitcoin price topping out.
Here I have modified an existing script by Tradingview author @Ninorigo which shows the moving averages and gives signals upon crossover by adding the following features:
A function which shows the price at which the 350DMA will Cross Below the 111DMA. (This is calculated from the prior bar closing data and does not repaint) [aqua blue line by default]
An “anticipated cross” function which may give a 1 bar advanced warning of a cross. (this is calculated from current bar values and may change and repaint) [purple line by default] [off by default .. turn on in the settings]
The crossover levels are shown in an info label to the right of the current price.
When there is a BTC Pi Market Cycle Top anticipated cross on the next bar there will be an orange background signal. When there is an actual BTC Pi Market Cycle Top cross there will be a red background signal
When there is an anticipated cross back there will be a blue background signal When there is an actual cross back there will be a green background signal
This indicator will show the appropriate moving averages and crossover information from the daily timeframe regardless of the timeframe you are using.
This should be helpful in more accurately identifying the price level where the Pi Market Cycle moving averages will cross denoting a possible market cycle top.
It is interesting to note: 350 / 111 = 3.153 Which is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number.
This is a script to give another view and metric on an interesting experimental idea. This is not financial advice.
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Added Timeframe and Multiplier variables. I have left the defaults as they were.... daily timeframe and a multiplier of 2. While the Pi Cycle top was originally intended for use on bitcoin I have noticed that with different timeframe and/ different multiplier settings make it more broadly applicable. These new settings allow for "fine tuning" of the indicator to other cryptos and to other asset classes.
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Added function which calculates the percentage drop from the reverse Pi Cycle top cross level to the current price and displays this in the info label.
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Small code tidy up.
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Generally tidied up the code and code layout.
Renamed variables, functions and descriptions for improved consistency and clarity.
Hey there. This indicator actually did mark the recent cycle top of April. I remember some Youtubers dismissed the indicator back in April, as it looked to them that 64k couldn't be the top and that there was no blow off top action. Very interesting how people build indicators to rely on them, so they can avoid emotional decision making, but when the time comes to use the indicators, they emotionally dismiss the indicators signals :) People are funny creatures.
cgminer997
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interesting and invormative. thanx for posting this script :)
Cryptomancer93
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Thx for the indicator
Simon_says
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This indicator is soooo nice, thank you very much for posting it here!
nayabr7676
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do you have any suggestions as to how to predict price at the time of the peak, based on the inverse price cycle indicatior
The_Caretaker
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@nayabr7676, Hi bro,
I dont really have any suggestions in regards to using it to predict price at the peak particularly as it is a reactive indicator.
Having said that I do keep a close eye on the cross value itself as if and when price meets that value the signal will be given therefore I am using that to gauge what would be a likely upper limit to how high price may go for this market top.
As you will notice it has been dropping steadily (some would say exponentially) as price has been moving up. that comes with the warning that the signal tends to fire during the last "parabolic blow off top" in a hugely volatile manner.
The trader I have learned most from has a saying "never try to short a parabolic blow off top because you simply cannot know where it will top out" as that last blow off is often dictated by shorts getting liquidated.
nayabr7676
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@The_Caretaker, thank you for your response, the Bitcoin stock to flow rainbow indicator is at 221K, it may be that this inverse pi cycle price meets it there as it comes down
ama8999
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These additions to the original PI Cycle Top are simply amazing!
Thanks for sharing!
cahtreber
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Excellent work there mate! Thanks for sharing with community!
kryptokoala303
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awesome, thanks for caring and sharing! ;] Learnt of this via Krown's new YT clip