Gold buyers now hold a solid position, since the break of 1750 our opposition has been trying to get blood from a stone. The solidity behind the bull case has been so strong to date and it shows in itself the fact that 'everything is not roses' despite how the politicians and media sell re-openings and activity data.
The highs cannot be ignored here, we have been tracking the $1,900 target together and came +/- within crumbs yesterday but failed for the official tick.
The break.
The move is still premature on account for those wanting to swing into the $2,000's and beyond. Challenging the bull case here is deflation and liquidations in equities.
Retail have been sent into the wilderness, which in no way can turn into the Edenic garden they hope for. Note how the original 5 wave sequence started in 2018 when we traded live the assault from the lows:
Buyers have had the upper hand ever since, sellers are hoping to prevent for as long as possible the annoying move to all time highs. In order to liberate the $1,900 highs buyers will need to pullback and allow equity liquidations to take place and secure the required energy.
So those looking to take shorts in the same way we switched sides earlier in the year, we can calmly finish our profit taking from longs and look for the appropriate welcome of offers into the book. Note how we are combining defence at soft resistance and ONLY aiming to attack when we see a closing BELOW yesterdays low (1865.xx in spot). To put simply, we are outguessing profit taking in and the strategic start of wave 4 which will last into September.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
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👀 on 1970.x
ความคิดเห็น
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We overshot the highs in the summer lull, light liquidity and empty ladders opening up the huge swing:
You are suggesting gold weakness due to deflation and liquidation in equities is possible. However, if USD continues to weaken it will be a floor under gold prices, and may even be bullish for precious metals.
PsychonauticalTrader
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@insyyte, nothing can go straight up forever, but I agree that USD weakness and worldwide central bank moneyprinting is what's driving this rally, and it's a huge factor at this point
aaronsmth5
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@insyyte, We will see a sell off for the entire equities market, I believe. The SP 500 and Nasdaq are both bound to pull back significantly, and when all these people trading on margin get margin called.....gold selling will follow, same for silver.
Then ya long after the pull back.
PaulDeep19131
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Interesting perspective with a professional chart. On a technical level this is possible, but in reality, its probably highly unlikely. This breakdown was possible if the high-top consolidation played out prior to hitting 1800, and at this point, remains unlikely.
The US dollar remains far too weak; money inflows into Gold is far too strong; breakouts in miners are far too fierce and Silver's run has been voracious as of late with no sign of letting up.
The deflationary period is overblown; CPIs have been steadily increasing as the USD has weakened which is a sign of inflation - not deflation. There is no real-world evidence of deflation other than during the few months the world was shut-down. In terms of the stock market, there is no sign of deflation what-so-ever. Firstly, equities going up right now is in part, because of inflation.
If deflation was a problem like it was on an acute level like in March, Gold and Silver would be stagnant or dropping; instead, they are rising. Gold and Silver are in part (but not exclusively) bets on inflation - not deflation, and if this was a period of deflation they would still be in consolidation or not much higher than the March lows.
In reality, Gold will probably go relatively untouched to 2000+ even if it grinds higher and Silver will likely get to the 26-28 level before any correction.
-zSplit
XYZ-Trader-
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Still continues to be wrong on every chart because EWT is not a prediction of price action.
ridethepig
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@tradeMeOut, it seems as if you have not been following the long Gold iterations since 2018.
well, it is rising. still. nevermind, in a nice random trading session without a special reason gold will start to fall massively and everyone will wonder why this happens. that's how the market works. then a few days later the so-called market analysts will invent and explain the reasons for this.