Keeping it short but precise, few fundamental bullet points on factors that will affect gold until the end of 2019: 1.Once US/China deal gets finalized, Gold should have a bearish consolidation to 1410, eventually to 1360 by the start of 2020. 2. GOLD is currently in a horizontal range due to two factors: Global monetary policy dovishness continues for October(bullish), but at the same time higher likelihood of a good US/China deal outcome(bullish), and then there's Brexit. 3. On the point of monetary policy; OCT 31st meeting already priced in, everyone is focusing now on Dec 11th FOMC(Ref#1). The issue for the Dec 11th FOMC, is that it will depend massively on the US/China deal outcome, that'll be decided sometime mid November. 4. Expecting yields on the US 10Y to recover if a deal goes through. Yields in a range, above the critical 1.5% support, and at the moment are looking for a breakout. Of course, this would have a very bearish effect on gold. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ On the technical side, you can see the developments on the chart. On the daily looks very indecisive, but leaning bearish. In fact, I think that after the FED rate cut next week, on Friday the 1st of November there should be a sell-off in gold. Earnings season is going okay-ish well, and by the end of it we should know how it will affect gold.Have to reiterate that Trump has to get a deal done with China; that'll basically guarantee him another mandate from 2020. This is the main factor, that makes me bearish on gold for now.
This is it for Gold, it was just a short, but precise update. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
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This short update is just a continuation from a previous chart on gold:
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Long-term pitchfork on gold.
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XAUUSD + XAUEUR. Still has some space to go on the EUR chart, closing above 1350 on the daily, could me a retest of the 50 daily MA. The gold/dollar chart looking for a breakout, confirmation above 1505.
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DXY could be bouncing of the bottom support. If gold closes above 1505 for the week, it could be a breakout confirmation going into the FOMC next week.
-Step_ahead_ofthermarket-
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Weekly MACD divergence in gold, typical for wave V's. MACD on the weekly hasn't been this high since 2016 and prior to that 2011. Atm bouncing of the weekly RSI trend line.
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Newest update, based on the data so far this week and J.Powell's Q&A session.
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Last weeks data and the bounce after the FOMC really turned me neutral on gold.
Just really can't give any recommendations, since gold trading in the next couple of months will be solely based on trade news.
Best of luck -step_ahead_ofthemarket-
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Apparently US and China have agreed to lift up tariffs. Very bearish signal for gold. Seems that the US is kneeling down to China. Let's see if a deal actually goes through.
Can you share your view on Gold on the later half of December? It is surprisingly bullish which is true with your count. This could be 5th wave of III. What reasons could drive this bullish move of gold? Is it year end cycle? I noticed that global growth begin to gradually catch a breath in Q4, Phase 1 trade deal between US - China has been completed. The uncertainty I could think of is phase 2 trade deal which is unlikely to be done in first half of 2020.
Thanks
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@PLFX89, Hi, thank you very much for the comment! Yes, you are right. Despite the good news on the US/China trade deal and the global bounce in macro data, gold still seems bullish, especially recently. The simplest way I can answer your question, is that central banks balance sheet expansion favors all assets, even gold. I actually discuss these factors in few of my newest ideas that may give you more clues on why the price action in gold is the way it is. In case you are interested these are the 3 links I'd recommend! 1. 2. 3.
Hope my answer was satisfying, and happy holidays!
@step_ahead_ofthemarket, ECB was expected. Plus Gold is still within the range. Draghi urging more fiscal spending could be bearish for gold.
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Nonfarm payrolls 266k, expected consensus 180k. That's close to 50% surprise. Unbelievable numbers for November. Wages still slacking. Overall, this in a way is a good thing as more people are employed, furthermore boosting consumer confidence.
This figure coincides with the SPX breakout in November. It was also one of the best monthly performances on record. Perhaps one of the reasons is that trade fears were beginning to cool off.
This figure will set the direction for the 4 weeks left that we have of 2019. Nevertheless, going into 2020, things won't be as optimistic as they are now.
Thanks