XAU/USD (Gold/USD) chart on a 144-minute timeframe
1. Wave Analysis and Elliott Wave Structure
The chart follows an Elliott Wave structure, identifying five distinct waves of a downtrend (Wave 1 to Wave 5) followed by a corrective pattern.
Notable Wave Points:
Wave 5 is projected to potentially end near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level around 2,843.46, which often marks a strong potential reversal point.
Corrective Waves (i-iv): Following the primary downtrend, the upward movement seems to be structured in corrective waves (i, ii, iii, iv), suggesting a possible ABC or zigzag correction in progress.
2. Fibonacci Levels
1.618 Extension at 2,843.46: This level acts as a key Fibonacci extension for a potential diagonal Wave 5 completion, which could serve as a resistance level for price to react or reverse.
1.236 Extension at 2,803.48: This level has been marked with a "Volume Divergence by Wave 5" note, indicating that this might be a significant area of confluence where volume divergence could lead to a price reaction or reversal.
3. Wyckoff Phases and Price Levels
Automatic Reaction (AR) and Secondary Test (ST): The chart labels an AR and ST in a possible Wyckoff Phase B, which usually indicates accumulation. This phase is characterized by testing support and resistance levels as the market builds a base.
Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B: This is marked below, indicating a loss of momentum in the downward trend and possibly setting the stage for a reversal.
Upthrust (UT) in Phase B: An upthrust is noted, which could act as a false breakout above resistance levels, signaling potential distribution if price fails to hold above it.
4. Volume and Divergence
Volume Divergence: Marked by Wave 5, this signals that while price may still be moving down, volume may not be supporting it as strongly, suggesting waning bearish momentum and potential for a reversal or a consolidation phase.
5. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Levels:
Around 2,790: This level is marked prominently as a psychological level where price might struggle to break above.
Recent Swing High (2,800 - 2,810): Located near the top boundary of the corrective range and could act as resistance for upward price movement.
Support Levels:
2,674.19 (0.272 Fibonacci retracement): This level acts as a potential support in the context of the current downtrend.
SOW in Phase B (Zone around 2,670 - 2,675): This area might act as strong support, especially if the SOW represents the lower boundary of an accumulation phase.
6. Dealing Range and Structural Patterns
The chart outlines a Dealing Range between recent swing highs and lows, suggesting a consolidation phase where price could oscillate before choosing a direction.
Potential Diagonal Structure: The ongoing correction appears to be forming a potential diagonal or channel. The price is expected to follow a controlled upward move but may encounter resistance near the top boundaries of the channel.
7. Price Objectives and Probable Movements
Upward Objective: Price might attempt to move towards 2,800 or higher, reaching a Phase B UT area as the corrective structure unfolds.
Downward Objective: If price fails to break above the noted resistance levels and Phase B patterns, it may revisit the support zone around 2,675 - 2,680 or lower.
8. Strategic Points and Trading Considerations
W Close (Wave Close): This label near the middle of the range could indicate the end of a wave and a potential consolidation or reversal area.
Stop Loss Considerations: Noted as "Good Stop Loss Till STD Hit," suggesting an area where a standard stop loss could be placed, possibly below the recent lows or swing points for managing risk.
No Money Protected Swing: A cautionary note near the support area suggests an awareness of risk in this region.
Summary of Key Takeaways
Price is currently in a corrective phase, possibly forming a complex wave structure after completing a primary downtrend.
Key resistance levels around 2,790 - 2,800 and support levels near 2,670 - 2,675 are crucial to watch.
The Wyckoff structure and volume divergence suggest a potential base-building phase, though a clear breakout of the range is needed to confirm the direction.
The chart follows an Elliott Wave structure, identifying five distinct waves of a downtrend (Wave 1 to Wave 5) followed by a corrective pattern.
Notable Wave Points:
Wave 5 is projected to potentially end near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level around 2,843.46, which often marks a strong potential reversal point.
Corrective Waves (i-iv): Following the primary downtrend, the upward movement seems to be structured in corrective waves (i, ii, iii, iv), suggesting a possible ABC or zigzag correction in progress.
2. Fibonacci Levels
1.618 Extension at 2,843.46: This level acts as a key Fibonacci extension for a potential diagonal Wave 5 completion, which could serve as a resistance level for price to react or reverse.
1.236 Extension at 2,803.48: This level has been marked with a "Volume Divergence by Wave 5" note, indicating that this might be a significant area of confluence where volume divergence could lead to a price reaction or reversal.
3. Wyckoff Phases and Price Levels
Automatic Reaction (AR) and Secondary Test (ST): The chart labels an AR and ST in a possible Wyckoff Phase B, which usually indicates accumulation. This phase is characterized by testing support and resistance levels as the market builds a base.
Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B: This is marked below, indicating a loss of momentum in the downward trend and possibly setting the stage for a reversal.
Upthrust (UT) in Phase B: An upthrust is noted, which could act as a false breakout above resistance levels, signaling potential distribution if price fails to hold above it.
4. Volume and Divergence
Volume Divergence: Marked by Wave 5, this signals that while price may still be moving down, volume may not be supporting it as strongly, suggesting waning bearish momentum and potential for a reversal or a consolidation phase.
5. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Levels:
Around 2,790: This level is marked prominently as a psychological level where price might struggle to break above.
Recent Swing High (2,800 - 2,810): Located near the top boundary of the corrective range and could act as resistance for upward price movement.
Support Levels:
2,674.19 (0.272 Fibonacci retracement): This level acts as a potential support in the context of the current downtrend.
SOW in Phase B (Zone around 2,670 - 2,675): This area might act as strong support, especially if the SOW represents the lower boundary of an accumulation phase.
6. Dealing Range and Structural Patterns
The chart outlines a Dealing Range between recent swing highs and lows, suggesting a consolidation phase where price could oscillate before choosing a direction.
Potential Diagonal Structure: The ongoing correction appears to be forming a potential diagonal or channel. The price is expected to follow a controlled upward move but may encounter resistance near the top boundaries of the channel.
7. Price Objectives and Probable Movements
Upward Objective: Price might attempt to move towards 2,800 or higher, reaching a Phase B UT area as the corrective structure unfolds.
Downward Objective: If price fails to break above the noted resistance levels and Phase B patterns, it may revisit the support zone around 2,675 - 2,680 or lower.
8. Strategic Points and Trading Considerations
W Close (Wave Close): This label near the middle of the range could indicate the end of a wave and a potential consolidation or reversal area.
Stop Loss Considerations: Noted as "Good Stop Loss Till STD Hit," suggesting an area where a standard stop loss could be placed, possibly below the recent lows or swing points for managing risk.
No Money Protected Swing: A cautionary note near the support area suggests an awareness of risk in this region.
Summary of Key Takeaways
Price is currently in a corrective phase, possibly forming a complex wave structure after completing a primary downtrend.
Key resistance levels around 2,790 - 2,800 and support levels near 2,670 - 2,675 are crucial to watch.
The Wyckoff structure and volume divergence suggest a potential base-building phase, though a clear breakout of the range is needed to confirm the direction.
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน