Lookling back, I think the recent drop had more to do with big player positions than anything else. The drop confused me and temporarily distorted market's real intention.
But it seems to me my original thought on oil below still makes the most sense. So I am going back to it with almost no changes.
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Forgot to mention, for this idea to work, oil almost HAS to go up everyday from now on until OPEC. Any major drop would invalidate this idea.