🚨🌩 SPX 1Hr: Major Bearish Ichimoku Cloud - Avg Drop 10% from ATH / Historical Analysis ⛈🚨
In this analysis, I look at the current SPX 1Hr Ichimoku Cloud vs. recent historical performance.
Summary: A Major Bearish Ichimoku Cloud is forming on SPX Hourly. In the last 2 years, only 3 clouds like this have formed like this, each resulting in a significant dip.
Observations; Mar '20: Major Crash 15% on first dip, followed by more - Unclear if current cloud may result in similar crash
Sep '20: Significant Dip 10.6%, happened with 2 bearish clouds - Current cloud has possible short-term similarity
Oct '20: Significant dip 8.9%, happened with 2 bearish clouds - Current cloud has possible short-term similarity
Current:
1.Major bearish (red) cloud has formed, Kijun Sen (red line) is dominant. - This is a significant red cloud formation compared to red cloud formations over the last 2 years. - You can observe just 3 more occasions such a significant red cloud formed, which resulted each time with a significant dip or crash - A dip of around 10% from ATH (similar to last red Ichi clouds) would result in a pullback of the SPX to 4100 range
This is a very good take on the current graphs and market situation! I have a similar perspective, just not as detailed; but I expect prices to go into a downtrend due to the bearish patterns and general weakness in trading.
Anyways, keep up the great analysis! They are always great to read.
Yemala
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@JustPlainHenry, Thanks Henry! Have you looked at Ichimoku at all, if so what are your thoughts?
JustPlainHenry
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@Yemala, I've only read about it briefly and applied it briefly when I was getting started a couple of years back but, it definitely is a very interesting indicator to use. Your current application of the strategy is perfect and I don't really have too many comments to make, and, in my opinion, is rather strong and has solid merit; with a high probability of playing out as you suggest in your post. Looking at the clouds and the signals, they are as clear as day as your analysis suggests, and indicates a bearish trend; however, my only real criticism of the Ichimoku strategy is that it's rather lagging not providing the quickest signals, but serves as a strong confirmation for other strategies.
Yemala
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@JustPlainHenry, thanks! You're right, it is to be used with other technical indicators to form a balanced analysis (since I don't have time for news/fundamentals, I really go just by TA)
- Just curious, what approach do you use?
Let me know if you have a link to any ideas, would be interesting to see your thought patterns
Cheers
JustPlainHenry
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@Yemala, I currently use a combination of support/resistances, MACD, RSI and, moving averages to form my ideas. Where they are used to identify key areas, identify momentum and identify the trend respectively. Combining these with news and significant economical stats helps me form a detailed idea for my trades.
For sure, I'll send you some ideas when I have the chance!
samitrading
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Great work buddy, keep up the good work love your way of anlaysis.
Anyways, keep up the great analysis! They are always great to read.