M&M Fin (W): Bullish, Breakout with Short-Term Rejection

(Timeframe: Weekly | Scale: Logarithmic)

The stock has confirmed a major multi-year breakout, moving into "Blue Sky" territory. However, the daily price action suggests a temporary pullback (re-test) is imminent before the uptrend resumes.

📈 1. The Breakout Structure (The "Big Picture")

- The Setup: The stock has been trapped in a consolidation phase since its July 2023 peak. The ₹330–₹335 zone acted as a rigid "ceiling" for over two years.
- The Breakout: The week of Nov 17 was decisive. The stock surged 10.98%, closing above this multi-year resistance for the first time.
- Volume: The move was backed by 29.74 Million in volume—a significant expansion compared to the "dry" consolidation phase, confirming institutional participation.

🕯️ 2. The "Shooting Star" Warning (Daily Chart)

- The Pattern: The last daily candle (Friday) formed a Shooting Star. It opened high, rallied to a new peak (~₹354), but faced heavy selling pressure to close near the lows (~₹342).
- Implication: This "long upper wick" shows that sellers are aggressively defending the ₹350+ level. It strongly suggests that the breakout is "tired" and a re-test of the breakout zone is likely next week.

🚀 3. The Fundamental Catalyst (The "Why")
This technical move is supported by strong fundamentals, which adds confidence to the long-term bullish view:

- Earnings: The breakout is a delayed reaction to strong Q2 FY26 results, where Net Profit surged ~54% YoY and asset quality improved.
- Outlook: This fundamental strength suggests that any dip (re-test) will likely be bought by smart money.

📊 4. Indicators & Trend

- RSI & EMAs: RSI is rising (bullish momentum) and EMAs are in PCO state (trend alignment) across Monthly and Weekly charts. This confirms the primary trend is UP.

🎯 5. Future Scenarios & Key Levels
The "Shooting Star" dictates the immediate game plan: Wait for the Re-test.

🐂 The Bullish Case (Buy the Dip)

- The Strategy: Watch for the stock to pull back to the ₹333 – ₹335 zone (the resistance-turned-support).
- Confirmation: If the price stabilizes or forms a bullish candle (like a Hammer) at this level, it is a high-probability entry.
- Target 1: ₹417
- Target 2: ₹475

🐻 The Failure Case (Fakeout)

- Trigger: If the selling pressure from the Shooting Star intensifies and the stock closes back below ₹333.
- Consequence: This would confirm a "fakeout" (bull trap), and the stock could slide back toward the consolidation midpoint around ₹300.

Conclusion
The breakout is genuine, but the Shooting Star signals a short-term pause. The ideal approach is to wait for the re-test at ₹335 to confirm that the "ceiling" has truly become a "floor."