Updating these charts for this week as the market character continues to change. If the NASDAQ is going to return to the regression mid-point lines for 1yr, 2yr, 5yr and 35yr, there is still significant drawdown to happen in the next couple months.
Over the past two weeks, the index has gone up and down, but has consistently followed bearish trend lines, even on up days.
Investors are rotating through sectors looking for safe havens that will hold up well. Real Estate was last week, Energy is this week.
Unless something changes (economic stimulus, other news), I'm still expecting a 0.5-3% drop this week (especially if China-relations further deteriorate from the TikTok stall) and 13-15% into mid-October.
Lots of others expecting these drops as well. Look at Call/Put Ratios and SQQQ Volume continues to be high.