We took short today from 2006, which went fine. Second thoughts were dispersed when 3-day triangle went south. Following a nice 25% recovery from 1650, psychological level 2000 failed to hold. Scheduled sell-off is going to take control from here.
Expect strong bear trend continuation, with acceleration towards 1124 target.
Technical analysis is explained in the chart: Kumo, AO, RSI, DMI = bear! Gann, Fibo reveal the target.
Fundamental analysis: - btc is rising - 33K gas created every day and in pos it will be 165K - money is moving to older exchanges like BTCe right now. Expect pump on older alts like LTC, PPC, NMC - whale capital is leaving polo - still unresolved technical / inflational issues - sell the news article - ETH inflation rate per year in POS 100%. So 180 million tokens by end of 2017.
When to short? If you followed today's idea, you shorted at 2006. If not, now is a good time to short from 1935. Triangle was broken and as such, downtrend continuation is confirmed = less risk.
Soft stop-loss: 2000 Hard stop-loss: 2250 (trendline break) -> would signal a bull market. Until then, this is bear market.
Happy trading!
ความคิดเห็น
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This is one of the best short opportunities out there. Given that we are in bubble cycle and have just shorted Bull trap on our previous trade.
Now we gonna short "Fear" phase down to "Capitulation" phase.
After rebound, expect another short down to "Despair" phase.
Quick Commentary: 1870-1900 range has been visited, the support was thinning and sell pressure increasing. However! A small group of individuals with large capital decided that the price wouldn't break the 1H Kumo and minutes before each hourly close, they pumped the price just to close inside the cloud. See chart:
After they got invested heavily, it was just a question whether they are strong enough to profit on holding the price above cloud. Their strength, manifestated by 25k buy walls, managed to breach our Soft stop-loss level.
That is signal to reassess and be cautious. My reassessment: hodling the shorts tightly af! :)
A friend of mine, Esuvari, investigated the linear scale and found some interesting trend-lines I like. Thumbs up for him!
For now, it is suggested to stay calm and let the bull machos finish their game. They're shaking out weak hands out of the short position. Patience is a Virtue.
Happy trading!
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Today, we added to our shorts at 2250 level. Unless the major bear trend-line is broken, it is safe to add to shorts. See our most recent analysis:
I like your fundamental analysis! Keep the hard work.
MarcelV
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Thanks for appreciation! :)
phlogistax
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Thanks for your charts, they are very helpful and I appreciate your work. What is your attitude about Ether in the longer term? Say the second half of this year and into 2017?
MarcelV
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Thanks for appreciation! :)
MarcelV
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Currently, we are following the bubble cycle. After the cycle, Ether will be forgotten for a while and it may or may not enter another healthy phase later... I reckon Doge is good to compare to.
Petros
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Comparing Ethereum to Doge is kind of wierd in the light of the technology behind Ethereum. Doge had nothing to offer, while ETH has immense utilitary value. Do you take this fact into account?
MarcelV
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Isn't its (limited) utilitary value already priced in? afai see it public already bought. I know my sister could buy Doge, but she certainly will not buy programmable coin. Its not catchy and cerainly not sexy. Like.. "Ethereum accepted here." I wouldn't bother. Doge was better. Yes, ETH attracts institutions and banks.. The technology behind it is nice (DAPPs). The currency though, is unattractive, not suitable for payments, and in general, crap.
Petros
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End users won't buy ETH tokens anyway. They're not designed to be money like BTC. Their primary use is to fuel the network. The fact that wierdos like us can trade them is a side-effect. How do ypu support the argument that it's already priced in? Was Internet already priced in after the first release of Netscape?
Because i think ETH will down.