I am definitely sensing a long position for Bitshares on Poloniex. They have completed a wave before, and it looks like the potential of having another positive correlation wave again. While this is still a medium risk strategy, it still looks like a conservative investment with the potential of reasonable gains for a past 3 month holding. I believe you are right at the point of having reached a dip in price and the correlation will continue mostly positive for the first quarter of the year. (Invest in your own risk)