Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis

1 ก.พ.

📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT

During the correction, the price of Bitcoin reached both targets from our previous review: the Imbalance 1D and Imbalance 1W zones. The price drop after the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF was halted by a significant support block at the level of 38600, from which a local rebound occurred. BTC price broke above the dynamic resistance line EMA 50 4H, and now we observe its top retest. If the price manages to consolidate above it and surpass the resistance level of 44000, we expect the price to enter the Imbalance 1D zone and trade within it, with the aim of closing gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes. There is also the range of 0.68-0.78 Fibonacci levels, exceeding which would indicate the completion of the local correction and the resumption of growth.

Otherwise, if the Bitcoin price fails to consolidate above the EMA 50 4H line and buyers lack the strength to overcome the resistance level of 44000, we anticipate a continuation of the price decline and a test of the trendline around the support level of 38000.


📉 Bitcoin market global analysis

Globally, the price of Bitcoin is approaching the pre-halving rally, which in previous cycles was preceded by a sharp decline. On the daily logarithmic chart, the BTC price has fallen below the global trendline support and is currently retesting it from below. The outcome of this test will determine whether the recent price drop concludes as a local correction or if we should prepare for a global correction of the entire growth from the past year. If the correction concludes, the next target for growth will be the 0.78 Fibonacci level, where a significant resistance block is located between 48000 and 53000. However, I would like to remind you that we have not experienced a significant correction in the market since the beginning of 2023. The RSI indicator divergence has just begun its work. If, under selling pressure, the price fails to return above the global trendline, we expect a correction in the range of 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci levels and a retest of the 200-week moving average. Additionally, there is the Imbalance 1W zone from 34000 to 31000, where it is necessary to close gaps at horizontal levels of trading volumes.




💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions

The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme greed zone at 63.
The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 1,587 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 52.6.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, demand and supply zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand Zone: 35000 - 38500
🔴 Supply Zone: 45000 - 50000

Levels for long positions:
38000-38500 - significant support block
35000-36000 - possible retest zone of SMA 200 1D
34000-35000 - possible retest zone of the trendline

Levels for short positions:
47000-48000 - significant resistance block
50000 - psychological resistance level
57000 - 0.78 Fibonacci correction level




📊 Fundamental analysis

Experts in the crypto community believe that the market correction following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has concluded, and investors can expect increased activity in the altcoin market with subsequent movement of BTC towards new local highs.

On the first day after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $4.54 billion. On the second day, this figure decreased to $3.15 billion. The market ended the previous week with a trading volume of $1.68 billion. However, last week, Bitcoin futures ETFs reclaimed part of their investments. As of January 19, 2024, spot instruments occupied 86.75% of the market. Meanwhile, the outflow of funds from cryptocurrency-based investment products has continued for the second consecutive week. From January 22 to 26, investors collectively withdrew $500 million from cryptocurrency funds, as noted by analysts in CoinShares' weekly report. However, the capital outflow from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has finally slowed down.

Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5%. Jerome Powell stated that they have achieved significant success in combating inflation in the U.S., but it still remains high. Following the meeting, the Fed does not consider it advisable to start lowering rates until there is confidence in the trajectory of inflation moving toward 2%. Almost all Fed officials believe that it is worth lowering rates this year.

The index of the largest U.S. companies, S&P500, set a new all-time high, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is in a sideways movement. Both markets are currently experiencing a local correction.

🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets:

➤ February 13, 16:30 - Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January.

➤ March 20, 21:00 - New decision on the Federal Reserve interest rate.


📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator:

In January 2024 Bitcoin, and after it the entire cryptocurrency market, fell due to the end of the race of companies to launch spot Bitcoin ETFs. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements.
Total price movement by all signals: +36.32%
Maximum price movement: +18.16%
Average price movement: 5.18%




In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:

6 ก.พ.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

The price of Bitcoin is currently trading sideways and continues to retest the 4-hour EMA50 moving average, which is currently acting as dynamic support. The resolution of this situation may come after several important events that could influence sentiment in both the cryptocurrency and stock markets and increase their volatility.

As known, market players monitor the speeches of Federal Reserve members, as well as the release of unemployment data in America. Throughout this week, several Federal Reserve officials will comment on the interest rate decision made last week. Their speeches are scheduled for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday.

On Thursday, the report on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States will be published. According to forecasts, there were 219,000 claims filed during the reporting week compared to 224,000 the previous week. Actual figures exceeding expectations are considered a negative factor for the US dollar market. Numbers below expectations are seen as positive for the USD.

Crypto investors are also anticipating hype around the potential launch of spot Ethereum ETFs in the United States. It's worth reminding that in the race to launch the instrument, Blackrock is also participating. Market players anticipate that the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs will push the price above $4,000 and boost the entire cryptocurrency market.

9 ก.พ.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Bitcoin's price is rising according to our review scenario against the backdrop of the S&P500 index hitting a new all-time high on the American stock market. Another factor contributing to the growth is the reduced selling pressure from Bitcoin miners, who have decreased their daily sales from over 800 BTC at the end of 2023 to less than 300 BTC at the beginning of 2024. The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone. Therefore, we expect a local correction in the near future.



Our trading Indicator, as always in advance, predicted the current price action and gave the most profitable entry points into long positions with minimal risk. Thanks to the latest updates, maximum take profit levels have already been taken for all signals, and the price movement according to the latest signals on the spot was:
BTC +10.93%
ETH +8.15%
MNT +8.35%