I posted warning signs of bearish divergence plus the formation of a mini heads and shoulders, and BOOM 42K like predicted.
Next steps after this, I believe is a continual drop throughout the day to complete the handle of the inverse cup and handle pattern, which will then continue the drop to complete the massive heads and shoulders drop to 17k-20k region.
Excellent. Do you have any bullish reversal thoughts? Curious what will invalidate your thoughts above?
supestv
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@ImminentDebacle, Yes, this sudden drop to 32k could be the completion of a subwave B (subwave A is from 29K to the top of this 33K pump), which would mean the start of a Subwave C up to 35k to meet the H+S neckline.
Today is VERY important to determine whether we go up or down, so I will be watching the 5m and 1 hr candles. 5m candles are useful because an impulsive wave is characterized by many consecutive candles of the same color in the same direction, whereas a corrective wave is a mix of green and red. I have observed that consecutive hourly candles of the same color (7 or more) is a strong indicator of an impulsive wave (especially if all the waves in a direction are mostly the same color). In other words, I look at the 5m candles, then I look for confirmation in the hourly candles.
So if any wave upward is mostly green, then I would be more and more convinced that we are actually on a subwave C going up. Right now I see mixed signals, as I see a healthy bounce from 32k, but then I also see a healthy drop (of all red candles) back to 32k. So it's too early to tell.
ImminentDebacle
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@supestv, Thank you for the response. Looking forward to your analysis.
Let's see in 1.5 hours when the daily candle closes.
ImminentDebacle
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@supestv, Thanks for the update. I was just looking at all the green candles, haha.
supestv
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@ImminentDebacle, Yes, I almost missed the trade up, but the price kept breaking my bearish patterns so I bought back in in time for the big jump up. I think when in doubt about which way the price is going is to compare the waves going up vs the waves going down using hourly candles. You can see that even though there were many red cconsecutive candles going down to the 32k mark, after that the waves going up were mostly green and the ones going down were a mix of red and green, which indicated to me that the waves going down were actually corrective waves of a new impulsive wave going up.
Having said that, I strongly believe that we are on an ABC corrective pattern, and therefore after we hit 35kish, we will go back down to the 20k region. I believe that when we hit 35k will go up and down in the 35k region, and I will be looking at those candles plus RSI and MACD to analyze whether I am in fact wrong and that 29K was the bottom.