I updated my last publlication when I went long again. I have a full position now, in all my crypto portfolio. Waiting to add after we get further confirmation, and after being in some profit, on each and every single trend continuation signal on the way up. Sentiment and technicals gave me a good signal today, so I closed my ETCETH and ETCBTC longs, and kept my ETH as a longer term stake. Made out with 2% with it, which helps alleviate some of the loss. Hopefully, people following me have a reduced drawdown, and are in good shape to continue following this powerful trend.
we might stall against the Bitmain level soon...I added on the dip yesterday, now have 50% ETH and 50% BTC going forward. I liked all the vocal bears, bitter short sellers, like Tuur Demester, and other personalities calling a top and more downside. I guess they cashed out at the bottom. I hope these guys join tradingview, so that people can see their 'track record'.
Here's BTCEUR Nice breakout here, and a perfect bear trap.
Remember I said 2525 was critical, it got breached, and bang, we have a downtrend failure, and now a weekly mode building here. It is ready to move, needs confirmation within next week or later.
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Now market is likely to consolidate in a tight range leading to a breakout to the upside on August 1st. Right now, there is uncertainty regarding signaling, since Segwit activation and avoiding a chain split still depends on the miners' honesty. My take is that they will go through with it, since no one really wants a chain split, it just is bluffing, if some miner suddenly talks it down, or just fearmongering, when twitter 'celebrities' talk about Bitcoin Cash, etc. For the most part, I'm pretty sure ViaBTC is badly positioned and aiming to get rid of losing shorts, judging by their constant attempts at fud, but the thing is that Segwit locked in via BIP91 signaling, and I'm dead certain Segwit2x will gain traction. The only risk is by November, when they hard fork, IF they hard fork. That could make my long term forecast time expiration a reality, by forming a top and a 2 year correction in BTC. This still doesn't matter now, since in the short term the market will most likely shoot up like crazy after August 1st, hitting the 3500 to 7000usd range.
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One more thing: I don't reccomend following technical signals in the short term now, unless you are very experienced and succesful aleady. Disregarding timing of fundamental events is plain stupid in my opinion. Wait, buy dips, and by August 1st you will be rewarded.
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(Nothing will REALLY move before August 1st. Buy dips, sell rallies until then if you want.)
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Short and long term target range matches - BTCUSD chart Here is where weekly and 2-month timeframe can top.
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Buyers biting here:
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Buyers stepped in...bottom of the dip spotted.
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"nakov IvanLabrie 18 minutes ago @IvanLabrie, yep, BCC is a shitcoin, it is not a hard fork...it is a fork off Bitcoin, chain split from Bitcoin. Using the moment 1st of August, taking advantage of the timing to push out another irrelevant shitcoin. I heard it is supported by Roger Ver, Jihan and ViaBTC Chinese exchange where the latter even collects future options on BCC price. WTF. The goal is to confuse and make n00bs sell and lose their bitcoins fearing a real hardfork (it's NOT!). Most people I have talked with swear they will immediately sell the shitcoin. Also, based on the link above there is a good chance you will corrupt your wallet if trying to get both as BCC uses the same libraries and folders as Bitcoin. Also, another warning, that when you enter the Bitcoin wallet's private key into BCC wallet to get your free shitcoins, you could get your Bitcoins stolen: twitter.com/Excellion/status/889786808883585028 A massive amount of a hot steamy pile of turd."
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Building for a move up here...people in panic again, with every little downside action in price, interesting. I'm holding longs.
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So far, my predictions have been correct: BIP148, nothing burger. Price rallying... Another prediction: BCH never mines a single block, Segwit activates before that, BTCUSD shoots up Hodl and wait patiently
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Nailed my guesstimate, it just jumped before I expected it to. We have hit the short squeeze target, there are higher targets in the short term as well: Waiting to add again.
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On track, fundamentals panned out a bit differently than expected, but the outcome is the same, we will rally for weeks to come until we have negative fundamentals again, and potential for disruption of the status quo...
I see sideways/down action for now, Goldman has been covering BTC lately, in and of itself a worrying signal, but, I think we won't see a long lasting top until we hit my target zone in like 7-8 weeks.
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BTC: I'm looking to exit shorts and add to longs after this drop ends
Hey Ivan, waiting eagerly for your next update on this.
maqpie
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Thanks for the idea Ivan. Interesting for sure. Any, idea of ETH targets?
janor123
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Looking back and this, incredible to see things unfolding almost exactly as you had called in back in July!
IvanLabrie
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@janor123, thanks, I have a quite sturdy method to forecast these moves, it is very precise during a clear trend, the risk/reward and low drawdowns make it very profitable.
During sideways periods, there is a lot of fake signals, but we can gauge the reliability of the signals, or at least, reduce risk after a losing streak starts until things are clear again...
Cheers!
oetcap
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Are you thinking we've seen the end of this correction I take it? 3925 bottom?