This is the 5th time we've visited the orange line.
These support lines act like a floor. However, the more the market knocks on the floor, the better the chance it has to break through. If Bitcoin falls through, it will test the lows of the move. And if that floor isn't strong enough, it opens the door to much lower prices.
There is also a smaller head and shoulders pattern and we just fell through the neckline. At this point, I hope we hold, but it is more like (60-70%) that we fall through and visit 12k.
If you haven't started thinking about protecting capital, now is a good time. If it holds, you can buy back. I'm just afraid with the holiday weekend, there won't be enough buyers to keep us up in these levels.
ความคิดเห็น
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So far we have held above support and the longer we stay above, the more chance we have to go back and retest the top of the range.
Now that the holidays are over, we will start seeing the volume pick up so price action today will be of great interest. Hopefully we see some bottoming patterns start to form and allow us to take a position.
In my original post, I got out around $15500. I would love to buy back lower but I want to see more bullish signs before I get back in.
How do you determine the 60-70% fall through to 12K?
rzmb44
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@MSalt, Mostly experience of seeing this pattern form and the fact that this is the 5th time we tested the support line. The more you test support, the weaker it gets.
It was better than 50-50 that it broke and it has finally broke. I expect us to at least test 12,600 tonight. Hope that holds.
Dusk_1234
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@MSalt, No one knows where price is going to go but what you can do is look at where price has been, now in this case major support at 13509 has been broken next level of support is at 12.6 k does not mean it will go there it could go back up but nothing is stopping it from falling at the moment.
rzmb44
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@Dusk_1234, Sure. The reason I said I expect us to retest 12600 is simply because there isn't a lot of price history underneath, so usually it will go back to a point of prior support.
Everything with TA is probabilities. It can turn right here. It could also drop a big red candle to 10,000 and completely ignore 12600.