The markers were there regarding the importance of this first strong Resistance and gave hints on how to trade it:
You were also informed of how parabolas tend to behave during bull cycles:
So now that we have established that trading Bitcoin based on its historic price action isn't all that bad we can start drawing some more meaningful conclusions. After all news and fundamentals can make historic patterns diverge on short time frames but they always come back to the mean again given enough time:
What do all these mean to us anyway now that the aggressive parabolic rise was rejected? Well first of all there is no reason to panic. A pull back/ retracement at this point is very healthy and after such rise is pretty much needed.
Looking carefully at a similar pattern in 2015 and 2012 we see that in both instances when BTC broke above the Parabolic Support Curve (i.e. the optimal buy zone, fair value) after the bear cycle bottom was made, it aggressively pulled back inside finding support on the 0.618 - 0.69 Fibonacci Retracement Level. Soon after the price, having harmonized all the previously overbought indicators, it resumed the bullish trend towards a new Higher High.
Notice how at least one aggressive red 1W (weekly) candle was involved on both occasions.
Why should we expect anything different this time? Those levels and my analysis intend to show you which zone is more optimal to add more buys. After all we are at the start of a new bull market and every such pull back should be treated as a Christmas gift to accumulate more.
Assuming therefore that a similar pattern will play out, the 0.618 - 0.69 Fibonacci Retracement Level parameter places the bounce zone at 4900 - 5300. See how conveniently this is roughly inside the consolidation zone of April before the hyper aggressive rise to the 8400 region.
Remember that just as there were markers for this rejection, so where markers for the cycle's bottom when everyone was too afraid to buy:
The decision whether to trust BTCUSD's historic volatility is yours. I am simply presenting the facts. But let me know what you think. Is there a reason to panic? Is a strong red weekly candle really needed? I am looking forwards to a constructive discussion on the comments section!
Actually, I would prefer a green weekly candle with a close well over 7K for my thesis to remain intact.
TradingShot
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@Kwa, Let's see how this weekly closes. It is very critical.
CopilotThe
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The Bitcoin price increased around 40% in a few days and half of this rise has already gone down.
This new symmetrical triangle is almost completed. In case it does the breakout upwards, it could mean that the bull rally is very likely to continue. On the other hand, if it breaks downwards, the consolidation process could drive the price down to $6,000.
TradingShot
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@ElCopilot, Thanks for sharing.
CopilotThe
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@TradingShot, You are welcome! My pleasure to discuss about trading,
TradingShot
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@ElCopilot, The pleasure is all mine!
scripter
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TradingShot
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@scripter, You posted this on more than 1 of my studies, but oh well, it is still interesting to read.
scripter
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@TradingShot, indeed...this completes the blow off top at 20k......see you at 506 per BTC July 2020.....time analysis is very close....July 17th to 25th.
LittyKimmy
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Good idea, while everyone is talking about the H&S pattern and waiting for a further dump - you look at the situation globally and see that there is not reason for panic.
I absolutely agree with you.
Moreover, your vision finds a support in the Fundamental Part of the market. As you may know - SEC must give its answer regarding ETF until May 21. If we tie all the facts together - we would understand that exactly this ETF has great chances to be approved.
In this case, the next couple of days BTC will just flat, but then face a huge pump due to the ETF event.