Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! I'd like you to sit back, relax, and prepare to have your minds blown, as I show you why Bitcoin is poised to erase 100% of it's gains, since 11/12/17.
Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that BTC formed a large head and shoulders pattern, when it reached the all-time high. In order to find a hypothetical price target for that pattern, I've measured it's height, from the neckline to the highest point of the head. Then, I've subtracted that amount from the breakdown level. Based on the size of this structure, IF it were to correct to it's full potential, we would reach a price of approximately $5,650.
As time progressed, you can see that we later formed a triangle pattern (in black.) Taking measurements of that pattern, in order to find a hypothetical price target, we can see that (based on the size of the structure) it too, suggests a target exactly at the $5,650 level.
You may be wondering what the significance of the $5,650 level is, and if you look at the left side of the chart, you can see a "1" circled in red. That level, represents a 100% Fibonacci retracement, from the low on 11/12/17, to the all-time high. Interestingly, these completely separate structures on the chart, suggest a retracement to the 100% Fib. I don't care who you are (hater or lover) or what you have to say — I see beauty in this. I see perfect symmetry, which speaks volumes to the fractal nature of these markets. I am a strong believer in fractal market theory. In mathematics, fractals can be described as fragmented geometric shapes, that can be broken into smaller parts, which fully or nearly replicate the whole. With that said, each pattern on this chart, is a small part of the whole. The fact that the overall structure, has completely separate parts, which precisely suggest a common retracement, can only be explained by fractal market theory. This phenomenon isn't only present in the BTC chart. It's also present in LTC, XRP, ETH, IOT, XLM, and many others. Clearly, the presence of fractal market action is undeniable.
To be clear, I'm not saying that it is a 100% certainty that my target will be met. I'm just showing you what's on the chart. It's a well known fact that formations don't always correct to their full potential. I'm simply publicizing the information that's on the chart. What you decide to do with it, is totally up to you.
Looking at the recent price action, we can see that a small bear flag is forming, and momentum is continuing to expand to the downside. A break of the bear flag should occur, sending BTC down to test the rising dashed green trendline, which originates at the beginning of the rally. A break below the dashed green trendline, would be a red flag warning, that BTC is in self destruct mode. Many traders are expecting that level to hold, which is possible, but if it fails, that would highly increase the probability that the downside target of $5,650 would be reached.
Overall, it's clear that the bears are sinking their teeth into this market. It's possible that BTC could catch a bounce off of the dashed green trendline, possibly even to retest the top of the pink downtrend channel. However, as long as we remain under the top of the downtrend channel, I can assure you with 100% certainty, that my downside price target will eventually be met. =D
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
@MagicPoopCannon Your analysis has been the best I've seen, I didn't want to believe you at first but time has proven you right more than any other TA expert on cryptos. My question is: When do you think is a good time to enter back into the market? Do you foresee a strong bounce at 5600 or expect us to continue down? The problem with most crypto investors I think is that 80% of retail investors only have the option of going long.
Again, much appreciation for saving my ass a couple times.
Alex-al-Citadel
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You saved me money with your XLM post(s) and now I am sure you saved me money with this one. I owe you. I am not a professional trader but I am aware of psychological patterns and I learned a lot from your "rough" but direct style. You do not throw to much technical words around you but get to the point. This is great for "beginners" like me who can see patterns but have no experience in this area.
Funnily I began to look technical analysis just some weeks ago. I picked Stellar as my superior tech - coin - where I could way that I technically would deserve the crown - then things went not good at the tried outbreak and I looked closer for correlations and saw that bitcoins course really prevented more with XLM. Then I looked at your posts and things began to make sense. Haha and then I really zoomed out into the bigger picture and it hit me hard.
Thanks, and don`t change your style. But be prepared that you can also be changed by having "fans" - don`t let their estimations change the accuracy and clearness of your calls.
Thanks,
A
cryptosubs_com
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Any thoughts on this @MagicPoopCannon?: (not my chart... but seems pretty accurate to date... maybe a little faster than expected)
dooganau
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@cryptosubs_com, .....? The data stops mid-last year, im really sorry to tell you but your chart is 8 months out of date and that channel is now broken and we are heading towards a deathcross.
cryptosubs_com
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@dooganau, um... click the chart. press the play button (can't on mobile). It comes all the way to present. hits all the marks so far.
The channel is no where near broken, and the chart was created in May 2017 but goes well into the future. You can see up to present by clicking the chart and then pressing the play button (not on mobile).
this is not the channel most people are looking at. this starts from the beginning in 2012. (and goes to present if you press play and see how it hits all forseen marks).
Yes, I think we are in a bear market when viewing short term. But the "all time" chart is still going up. And that is what you see if you click the chart instead of just looking at it.
Ecua_Trader
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@dooganau, If you are trading thinking this chart is out of date, I am really worried for you lol. this chart is by far the best one I have seen in circulation.
dooganau
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@ChartsOnTime, Feel free to trade it. I would consider the market moving into atleast a tiny bit weak-form EM now there is the ability to hedge. There for I wouldn't rely on a chartist impression before that.
Ecua_Trader
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@cryptosubs_com, I think this is a great chart dude. Very clever the way he broke it in sections for possible routes. It basically tells what we have been saying. It will bounce of the 5k range. Now, I want to know who this guy is and really learn from him/her. Impressive.
PyroJap9
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@cryptosubs_com, Did you see the prediction from the previous year?
Again, much appreciation for saving my ass a couple times.