200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) peaked 4 years ago on June 8th. Next peak might be very near. Unless we start a rally like the one we had in November (purple arrow), 200SMA is going to mark its ATH soon (likely next week) with a relatively sharp peak. It would be cool if it peaks on June 7th, after 4 full years, the day after June 6th (see linked TA for June 6th importance). (yum yum, incoming fresh food for my tinfoil theories :D)
200 SMA is probably the most important SMA because it shows the long term trend. Investors do not like 200 SMA that is bending down. I don't expect smart money flowing in until 200 SMA bottoms which will take at least 2 months to form if price stays around the current range(7k to 8k). Green zones in the chart show potential bottoming zones for 200 SMA.
200 Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) is also about to peak. See this chart for historical info about these indicators.
Based on these 2 simple indicators, I don't expect good days for BTC for at least 2 months. At best we would range below 12k. There are many bullish and bearish arguments. I personally am leaning bearish med term until we make a higher high. See my previous TA (linked at the bottom) for bullish and bearish scenarios.
Do you think this is all just a coincidence (4 years, near June 6th)?
Don't forget to like if you want to see more analysis like this.
Thanks to all of you who help me on my journey of learning TA.
/:D
Image version of the chart:
PS:
While playing with numbers, I realized that 7 days' candles are missing from Bitfinex's BTC chart starting from August 2 2016. So be careful using this chart for long term trendlines. There are some gaps in Bitstamp chart as well. Best ticker for long term BTC is BNC:BLX.
Bragging part :D
Play the chart below and my other TAs :D
ความคิดเห็น
⋅
I just wanted to clarify that the green zones in the chart are not price bottoming zones as stated in the OP. They are potential periods for SMA200 bottoms.
ความคิดเห็น
⋅
An article for those who are certain about their view on market direction. Even Hyman Minsky is a bipolar when it comes to Crypto.
Since 2014-05-19 there were only 5 days with lower volume than yesterday's. Not that this volume is in terms of BTC not USD.
I said more boring days coming but I didn't expect this boring. Anyhow, it's weekend and it's expected to some extent. We MIGHT see some more action on Monday.
ความคิดเห็น
⋅
I think it is quite safe to declare our first candidate, June 3rd, as the peaking day for SMA 200. BTC made a double top. First top coincides with this day (June 3rd), and the second top coincides with the 4th anniversary of SMA200 peaking day. If you play the chart, you will notice that price started declining when it entered the red zone.
It is still too soon to judge and close the case, BTC has some chance of making a higher highs (30% as of now).
PS: we should think about some tinfoil theories about these coincidences when things are settled a bit more.
ความคิดเห็น
⋅
Yesterday's candle close was the lowest since mid-November 2017 @6436.
Peter Brandt a few days ago tweeted: "All markets: Never trust how markets gyrate to and from during session. The close is the only thing that matters. Ignore volatility."
Your TA looks similar to my fractal TAs. Looks good but no guarantee of going as it went in 2014. I expect things to happen much faster.
MamboNY
⋅
@hkh222, Perfect work :) You cracked the code
Krauser
⋅
Hello!
Thanks for the TA, I think you will be interested by this finding:
And now,
The cross of 200 and 100 MMA, did not happened since 2014 crash, and crossed back only in 2015 November to signal the end of bear market.
TradeClass
⋅
I was reading an article today that the volume of Bitc we see is a partial illusion. A tremendous amount of coin is moving across the OTC this month. This MIGHT explain why from the market perspective, sometimes a storm appears right out of the calm....
@hkh222, I saw that one and that one sort of made me nervous, but no. that was not the article I was referring to. In all fairness, I read about 20 articles every day and I just absorb the information and get a feel for the daily sentiment.
Tuisk
⋅
Thanks for good article about 200 SMA!
cI8DH
⋅
@Tuisk, I am glad you like it and thank you for supporting me all the time :)