Here's the monthly chart for a broader (and cleaner) view of the current price action.
Current pull back carries a lot of similarities with the hard fork crash back in November 2018. Both events were the biggest attacks on Bitcoin network and on both occurences the hashrate has dropped significantly overnight.
Once the decentralized network proved to be rock solid and indestructable, investors didn't wait long before going back in this opportunity, following a 5 month rally.
Many didn't think crossing 42k is the show of strength we have been waiting for and still waiting for 20's. I would call it greed after seeing the clear breakout from the downtrend. You have to react price action as it evolves and this wasn't a regular bull trap situation.
A bull trap doesn't take 13K to play, from 29.292 all the way to 42.404 in just 10 consecutive days. This is called nothing but a major sign of strength in terms of Wyckoff analysis and it is the signal that confirms accumulation throughout the trading range. Current correction marks the last point of support, presenting a big opportunity to enter a long position.
I believe Elon Musk's commitment on not selling Bitcoin on B world event and the confirmation from Tesla's earning report, ignited this rally and with the hard fork event occuring tomorrow in Ethereum will ignite the rest of it.
For me, the question was always accumulation vs distribution and the answer is crystal clear right now. This is why buying at 41k or 37k really doesn't make any difference to me since the destination is set. It's not the time to be greedy.
I've also updated the p&f chart assuming 37k as the dip of LPS. If it goes lower to for example 35k, just deduct 2k from lower targets in red and you should be ok.
This will be my last post on TradingView and i won't share any updates until next time to sell, probably sometime in November, because i don't want to comment on short term zig-zags. I'm a long term trend follower and i just found my trend, hope you find yours too.
I will miss your frequent updates! I did not always agree, but it has been a learning experience to share my own observations with you now and then. I will keep some stash in the bank, and even reduce some risk at 45-50k - if the bitcoin surprises all of us and dips later than expected. Wish you the best and looking forward to the selling times!
OfficialSkoL
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It's all about getting a higher low right now. Bitcoin got wicks to the 29k region in May as we all know. Then it took two months to finally close a daily candle at 29k. We have a possible pivot point set. IF we get a higher low now, we can blast off. IF we even wick lower than 29k now, that's a bear market sign.
Options market has It's highest volume for calls at 140k. So maybe these three total months spent in this range (January, June, July) was to ensure a strong volume profile to ensure a baseline price after a big markup phase later in the year. In any case, it's all about this next low that determines the direction.
I appreciate the analysis you've put in and enjoyed reading along.
ApeTrader77
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@vertheint, Agreed, if another LL, then shit will get fuzzy. I am thinking a HL so I liquidated about 60% of my portfolio to hopefully snag some different levels of this next dump.
alexferdean
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I can't believe how easy you turned bullish. How about looking at the volume?
burakb
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@alexferdean, actually buying volumes do not look bad.
alexferdean
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@burakb, price goes up, volume goes down... what does that tell us? they didn't look bad in 2018 either...
burakb
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@alexferdean, I agree, I meant volume not bad for a beginning "if" it is gonna go up. I am still skeptical about wyckoff accumulation since price could not breakout the trading range. It had a strong rejection for now. Still time will tell. I wouldn't buy this for now. Also I remember a massive pump before continuing down at 2018 and every indicator was bullish, all resistances were broken etc. So buying late will make my sleeps much peaceful: )
alexferdean
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@burakb, exactly. It looks that we are still ranging for now. There should be an impulsive 1-2 move which will clearly indicate a buy signal, but I'm not that sure. Let's see if this is the 2 move. We should see what happens at 35-36k which is the middle of this trading range. But I still think it will go lower than 30k.