Bitcoin, I can see clearly now, part 3

Sorry guys, this time i can't see clearly :). I still thought it was worth while posting this chart again. When i posted this chart the first time we had dropped from that 7500 high back to the 6500 and when price stabilized around 6600 i made this chart and knew what was going on. That purple line i drew 2 weeks ago was what i thought the price would do. We started to make a small rally but when we reached the 7200 bullish momentum fell short and we dropped back to the 6700 again.

Expect for that big squeeze the price has been following my purple line quite well. Until a few days ago my plan was still to go short between 8700 and 9600. Depending if price would make a healthy correction towards 7500, make a solid higher low and THAN we could go above the 9000. But price was being bought each time we got close to 7800/7900. Until the last 2 days i was still expecting 7500/7700 but because the price was getting bought at 7900 and pushed higher i though bulls were planning to go higher without making that correction to 7500.

If a market doesn't make a good correction and a higher low, than actually nobody can know if there are buyers willing to enter this market at certain prices. Which would indicate a solid support level.But when price moves like this, it's not sustainable for very long. There is no real support level between the 6500 and the 8400. Only level that could work is the 7800/7900.

Another options is that price is making a correction in time, would mean we could be moving like this for another few days. I told about this in my previous analysis as well, but of course i was hoping that would not happen because it frustrates everyone. Crypto markets are loved because of it's volatility, but the last month it just got completely killed. It's almost like we move 90% of the time in a less than 100 point range, than we see a flash crash or pump of 100/200 points and than it's just another half day sideways.

The thought that has been crawling in my mind the last 2 days, the fact that this might be a distribution phase. A week ago i said it was not possible because the accumulation phase at 6K's took almost 2 weeks, that 8200 would be to low. But we don't know how the big players think of course. Since yesterday price had made a 300/400 point rising wedge giving me hope for some volatility, but since we broke out it has been going sideways for hours again. This also indicates we could be in a distribution phase. The confidence i had in the 6K's about accumulation is not the same about the distribution now.

It's completely normal for a market to go sideways for a long time after a very big rally like we had a week ago, but Bitcoin is not the standard market and i thought we would start to see some direction a day or 2 ago. For now we are still in a range between 7800/8200. The best advice is, stay out of it as long as we are in this range. If i would have to gamble, i would say we go down towards 7700/7500, but this sideways action is just really making me doubt if those levels will hold. If alts were not showing strong performance like they have done AFTER the rally, it would be a clear drop for me. There are just a million confusing signals. I knew half year ago that when rumors started about institutional money would enter, that it would become more difficult to trade it, that they would destroy the charm of this market. But i did not think it would be like this. All we can do now is hope this is all just a phase of some kind and that we soon see the volatility return again.

If i can find the time i will try to post some other trades about some Alts if i can find the time. Maybe those can still offer some nice trades.


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The original analysis:

ความคิดเห็น:

And still this fractal is almost identical. It it follows this path, we have completed it and we should start to drop from. Can take a week or 2 :) but than it should drop from here.

ความคิดเห็น:

Where I say a week or 2, it’s joke, sarcasm :)

ความคิดเห็น:

Whales are doing their best to hid their plan, if they are accumulating or distributing now. Another option is, some whales are fighting against each other, but i don't think so. We can only hope we get an answer soon

ความคิดเห็น:

Watch out for a mean move like this. Could be both ways

ความคิดเห็น:

The yellow area below is like the purple area now

ความคิดเห็น:

This just doesn't end. Looks like the market want's to turn up. This picture also confirms it a bit. Looks very alike

ความคิดเห็น:

The spikes up and down look alike i mean

ความคิดเห็น:

The breakout was not very strong and it is almost failing. a drop below 8260 would be a small confirmation and a drop below 8200ish would be the next sign

ความคิดเห็น:

So finally some movement. No it has been following that same move i showed yesterday. So now we to look at what it will do with the bull flag it will probably make now. Since we are in the green area, it could follow that same path as well

ความคิดเห็น:

Price is still moving quite similar. This would suggest we should find support around 8400 and could turn up once again. If that happens, just look out for a failed (weak) attempt to break higher. These fractals are no guarantee whatsoever, but they do offer some great guidelines sometimes

ความคิดเห็น:

Anyone see my new Bitcoin Idea? I am afraid something went wrong and i have lost everything i wrote down :(

ความคิดเห็น:

Never mind :)