I'm putting most of my quick updates/charts on twitter. So please follow me there @imkeshav for updates and questions.
* If you followed my previous posts, our predictions were accurate and we managed to take profits and move 70% into FIAT. 12 hours later the entire market crashed. My vision, strategy and risk management helped here. My articles in yours.org have these details, please take time to read them and let me know if they helped.
"Bitcoin was the market maker" "Bitcoin cash IS the market breaker. You better notice it!"
When Bitcoin Cash came out of Hibernation & stunned the Crypto world on Nov12, the other alts were quiet & Bitcoin was crashing. Last 2 weeks, Bitcoin & alts had the best run up, BCH was quiet. Then on Dec 20, it rose up like a phoenix to everyone's disbelief, and then it took down the entire market with it.
After the last ATH of $2800 we had a correction for several days and consolidation for 4 weeks before we reached that point. So I don't think after the recent ATH of $4000 we can be done with the correction in a day or 2.
I tried to compare between then and now, and believe the correction will be similar and long, especially after it reached $4000 in matter of a day. However, the chart shows that BCH appears to be stronger than it was. Maybe because BTC looks so week with its overburdened network with 250,000+ unconfirmed transactions. It is taking days to transfer BTC
1) Is the most positive and we can breakout just like that today or tomorrow
2) Here we can keep bouncing within the channel and maybe breakout OR slowly bleed to death like last time, giving false hope to new investors
3) I believe this could be likely as part of a larger ABC correction
I like that RSI is within the channel (bottom) in the below chart, we can maintain a small uptrend while we are within the channel and maybe breakout.
We have resistance at $2700+ and for a breakout we need to breakout properly, or we come back to the support line at $2400, which is not very strong yet and so we can be taken down $200 level or bounce back within the channel.
But there is a new ATH (All time high) after any major correction. And what follows an ABCDE correction? A strong 1-5 impulse bull wave. So I believe this chart represents a correction similar or MORE than last time (2800 to 870) if this was indeed an end to 5th wave.
Be patient and buy the dips. Cash is King. Never put 100% of your money and maintain at 70:30 or 80:20 ratio
All the best! Can't wait for 5k!
ความคิดเห็น
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Bham! And scenario 1 it is ;-). However, based on our 1 Day chart, 3000 should be the resistance point (B wave Top) and can come down now to form wave C OR we can get some support at the $2700+ line (Fat green arrow)
OR we moon!
ความคิดเห็น
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FOLKS! I'm Buying a lot of BCH now!
ความคิดเห็น
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Well Well. It is going to be different now. Last time right after the first major dip, BCH was not able to hold the small green channel and slipped to "slow death".
Now it has jumped out of the channel aggressively. This makes me wonder if we are going to bounce back quicker and better compared to last time OR it could just be a huge fakeout screwing all of us. That is why my trading bucket is 55:45 (45% cash now). I'm in the game but still have enough cash for a dip.
The 4 Hour charts gives a better perspective, it still looks like an ABC or ABCDE correction. However, we need to observe if C goes below point A or stays above. That determines a bullish or a bearish wedge
Here is a short term idea, will be bounce up from the $2500 support?
ความคิดเห็น
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And we are going down to C wave? Anybody took my last update/advice and moved to cash?
ความคิดเห็น
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Another idea, will 2400 support hold?
ความคิดเห็น
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Someone on twitter pointed this out to me. A large Head & Shoulder pattern maybe. Not very visible in 4 Hour chart though. But I think this is inline with our wave C
ความคิดเห็น
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I see a bearish wedge forming. Lets see if it will breakdown and cut through support at @2450
If 2600 support does not hold, we will revisit 2100 and then either bounce up or go further down
ความคิดเห็น
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BTCUSD has formed a massive Head an shoulder as well
ความคิดเห็น
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Ok we broke upwards from the channel in the short term. This is a good sign
Macro view, Is C correction over?
ความคิดเห็น
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Christmas present..are we done with the ABC correction? Look at the pennant
ความคิดเห็น
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Hold on! Wait for it!
ความคิดเห็น
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Lets see if the support line is holding
ความคิดเห็น
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We have more data for comparison now with Nov12 ATH. The trend appears to be much better now.
On Nov12, - There was a sharp drop to $1087 bottom - There was a small uptrend (green arrow) - Followed by a downtrend and major slow death downtrend (Red arrows) - We reached the absolute bottom within 5 days of the ATH at $887
Now, - There was a quick drop to $1889 - There was a better & longer uptrend than last time (green arrow) - Followed by a small downtrend (red arrow) and a longer sideways trend (Orange arrow) - Today, we have a small downtrend - However, it has been more than a week and we haven't reached (and may not reach) a lower bottom than $1887
I will continue to monitor the price action. It is hard to predict when the correction/consolidation has ended, so it is always good to have cash in hand
ความคิดเห็น
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And we are out. Here is a channel that I observed. Watch for the resistance at $3000, I think we will smash through that though. Also look at the blue channel in the RSI , we breakout of that, then .....
BCHBTC is also looking to be ready for the 5th wave. What a nice coincidence
Your analysis doesn't take into account two fundamentals:
1. BitMex was dumping all their customers' BCH for BTC until perhaps recently.
2. There was fear that Coinbase users will all dump their BCH.
Now, BM has finished. The CB dump was very weak b/c people aren't ideological and want to keep a bullish asset.
History doesn't blindly repeat itself, my friend.
imkeshav
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@DrJLT, Absolutely true. So did Xapo and Greyscale.
Malkaviano
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I like Your posts, You don't provide a short time biased opinion, but You lay out possible scenarios. Your very thorough.
Apart from technical analysis, can You help me with market analysis?
Do you think that the move from bitcoin cash is a real possibility of overtaking BTC at some point?
BTC has the first movers advantage but bch is branded as bitcoin 2.0 -faster stronger etc.
Personally I prefer LTC. But bch has one thing-bitcoin brand and name. It is also heavily marketed.
Do we have any examples in history of one commodity overtaking the other?
SheriU
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@Malkaviano, BCH is 10x cheaper tx than LTC so it has an edge in commerce
People own BTC now because they believe it is a store of value, it has become a store of value because many merchants adopted it in the early days. Their loyality and dependence lasts only till it has a high price, it can quickly vanish as well. I remember the co-founder of ETC saying that it is not about the technology that drives these prices, but the people behind it. All the early bitcoin adopters, merchants and investors have moved on as soon as there was a viable alternative to bitcoin. However, the geeks are neither invested nor care for the transaction capacity of bitcoin. So no skin in the game for them. They care more about the tech of bitcoin then its usage
Certainly, this new revolutionary technology is shaking things up and there are a lot of forces (and emotions) clashing in it's rapidly expanding development and all of this has been playing out in this correction. Change is never an easy thing and sometimes (such as now) it gets a bit messy, but my question is what sort of change is it that we want. Is it not to give back to the people the power to choose for themselves how they exchange value with one another without having to ask permission from some "authority" which "thinks" people are not smart enough to make their own choices? The bottom line is that if you make the first mover (i.e. BTC) too expensive, that is essentially attempting to remove the Choice from more and more people and cutting off it's innate value. BCH/BCC Bitcoin Cash (AKA "BCash") is at least trying to keep the original torch alive of Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper to offer (as a "Choice") a cheap, reliable, quick and secure means of exchange of value to the masses. If BTC can get their shit together and do better in providing those original objectives, I'm sure more will shift back to believing in and using BTC. But for the time being, I'm siding with BCH/BCC on the merits and believe basic economics will win out.
Merry Christmas to those who believe in Christmas and all the best to everyone!
AvgJoe2019
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What ya thinkimg about this leg up?
AvgJoe2019
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Is the slow death march over? Your ABCDE call looks correct, what price point would confirm it for you on way back up 2700?
imkeshav
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@MarcKevinSwickle, At this moment it is hard to say, last correction lasted 5 weeks, now it has been 2 weeks
1. BitMex was dumping all their customers' BCH for BTC until perhaps recently.
2. There was fear that Coinbase users will all dump their BCH.
Now, BM has finished. The CB dump was very weak b/c people aren't ideological and want to keep a bullish asset.
History doesn't blindly repeat itself, my friend.